Resilience and Peace and Conflict Analysis Consultant - Beirut

Background of the project 

In 2023, Lebanon confronts a deepening crisis, marked by an economic collapse, political deadlock, and escalating social tensions. The economic turmoil, among the world's most severe since the mid-19th century, has led to rampant unemployment and widespread food insecurity, with a significant portion of the population living in multidimensional poverty. The strain on Lebanon's economy and health system has been further compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic and the devastating Beirut Port explosion. Governance vacuums and a clientelist system, unable to implement reforms, have fueled public anger and protests. Rising crime rate, and the hollowing out of the state's security apparatus threaten to exacerbate the situation, as Lebanon enters a new era dominated by conflict conditions across the country. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Palestine affects Lebanon, exacerbating regional tensions and impacting Lebanon's security situation. This connection to the Palestine conflict adds another dimension of complexity to Lebanon's already challenging circumstances.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has been actively engaged in Lebanon, addressing the complex challenges faced by Syrian refugees and the Lebanese communities hosting them. The country's situation has been exacerbated by various crises, including the ongoing economic crisis since 2019, devastating Beirut explosion in 2020 , the economic collapse, and recent earthquakes that affected the region, leaving many in need of urgent support. The IRC's response in Lebanon has been multifaceted, focusing on providing essential support to those affected by these crises.

BMZ Transitional Development Assistance: IRC Lebanon is applying for a funding opportunity with BMZ to support a Transitional Development Assistance (TDA) program in partnership with CARE International in Lebanon. The proposed project aims to empower women and marginalized groups, enhance local market systems' resilience, and reinforce community-based mechanisms for inclusive, peaceful communities, and ultimately improving food security and coping capacities in Lebanon. It aims to achieve it through three main outcomes:

• Improved food security and enhanced coping capacities of women and marginalized groups through resilience strengthening.
• Strengthening local market systems to cope with environmental and economic shocks and adopt inclusive practices.
• Enhancing peaceful and inclusive communities for women and marginalized groups. 

Strengthening the resilience of local people and structures is an overarching goal of the BMZ’s transitional development assistance (TDA). In the TDA context, resilience is defined as the ability to adapt to new conditions and risks and wherever possible, especially in ongoing crisis contexts, to create new prospects. TDA empowers local communities and structures to cope with crises on their own, to prepare for recurring stress situations and to minimize negative impacts, in order to gradually overcome these challenges permanently through structural change.

In preparation for the submission, IRC in Lebanon and CARE International in Lebanon are looking for a consultant to conduct a Resilience analysis in North and Akkar, and Bekaa, Lebanon.

Scope of work:

The Analysis aims at identifying current risks influencing peace and conflict and assessing the resilience capacities of affected Lebanese and Syrian communities living in the North and Akkar, and Bekaa, Lebanon with a socio-economic focus and its impact on the food security. The analysis will also pinpoint opportunities for enhancing crisis management and prevention across various sectors. In addition, the analysis will provide a thorough understanding of 1) Existing risks and crises in the Lebanese context; 2) The affected and responsible actors and structures, as well as their strengths, potential and abilities (resilience capacities) in coping with these risks and crises; 3) The needs and opportunities for further strengthening crisis management (incl. prevention) capacities on a cross-sectoral basis.

Consultancy Objective: The consultant will conduct an in-depth resilience analysis, aligned with BMZ's guidelines incorporating peace and conflict analysis.

Consultant's Role: The appointed expert will thoroughly examine Lebanon's resilience landscape, adopting a participatory approach that engages a range of stakeholders. Responsibilities include data collection, analysis, assessment of existing capacities and gaps, and providing actionable recommendations for fostering stronger, more resilient communities. The insights gained will be instrumental in shaping effective, context-sensitive programmatic solutions under the Transitional Development Assistance (TDA) program.

Incorporation of PCA: The PCA, integral to the resilience analysis, will adhere to BMZ's principles of risk- and crisis-informed development cooperation. The consultant will draw upon prior PCAs carried out by IRC and CARE partners and other relevant entities, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of Lebanon’s peace and conflict dynamics.

Comprehensive Approach: This component will provide a nuanced perspective, recognizing persistent challenges, emerging trends, and potential pathways for peacebuilding and conflict resolution.

Gender-Sensitivity Considerations: Ensure a gender-sensitive approach across the analysis, enriching the overall understanding of the different gender specific challenges and needs within Lebanese communities.

Core Questions:

Against which risks, crises, and vulnerabilities, should the resilience of Lebanese and Syrians living in the North and Akkar should be strengthened?

Proposed Specific Questions:

• What are the risks and crises (social, economic, environmental, political, security-related) l) at the different levels that have affected the food security and thus lives of people (Leb and non-Leb), living in North and Akkar and Bekaa, since 2019?
• What are the drivers of conflict/triggers that enabled the development of these crises and risks among Lebanese and Syrians living in North, Akkar, and Bekaa?
• What are the connectors that could reduce conflict, strengthen resilience among Lebanese and Syrians living in North, Akkar, Bekaa?
• How can be these connectors become opportunities?
• What dynamics exist between these different risks and crises (interaction - conflict dynamics)?
• What developments and risks are foreseeable for the future which could affect the resilience capacities of Lebanese and Syrians living in North, Akkar, and Bekaa (stabilization, adaption, transformation capacities)?

Whose resilience should be strengthened? (Target groups: individuals, organizations/instittions/groups & Level: individuals, local, regional, or sub-national)?

Proposed Specific Questions:

• Who are the actors and structures that have been affected or are responsible for crises and risks?
• How have these individuals, households, communities, groups, and institutions responded to these crises and risks?

In which sectors/areas should resilience be strengthened?

Proposed Specific Questions:

• How did these different actors - Lebanese and non-Lebanese community members, formal and informal institutions - (at different levels) react to the crises and risks? What coping mechanisms where used? What strategies were used (negative and positive)?
• How do affected Lebanese and non-Lebanese community members, formal and informal institutions prepare for the impact of potential escalation of tension, and risks or their recurrence in the future?
• What resilience capacities are already in place for individuals (Lebanese, non-Lebanese), formal and informal institutions? How are these capacities linked to the stabilization, adaptation, and transformation capacities?
• Which of these capacities can be identified as priority or opportunities for further strengthening?

With what objectives should resilience be strengthened? (What specific resilience capacities (stabilization, adaptation, and transformation resilience capacities should be strengthened?

Gender Analysis Integration:

• Key considerations will include:
• How gender dynamics intersect with identified risks, crises, and conflict situations in Lebanon.
• What are the unique resilience needs and capacities of different gender groups.

Methodology:

The consultancy will be required to design a proposal on how the Resilience Analysis (with the integral PCA) is intended to be conducted. The proposal should include a timeline for the analysis along with a detailed workplan.

Followed by a thorough desk review which constitutes the inception phase and relies on reviewing national policy documents, BMZ requirements and existing evaluations and data, such as peace and conflict analyses (e.g. Peace and Conflict Analysis), disaster risk assessments, evaluations of the degree of fragility and gender analyses, IRC and CARE propose the use of qualitative and quantitative approaches supported by cluster sampling to structure collecting information from a wide array of sources. These sources would include direct and indirect clients, community members, Private sector, civil society, Project beneficiaries, Ministries, Local authorities including Qaem Maqams and head of municipalities in the North and Akkar, IRC Local partners and staff (security staff, project coordinators, managers, monitoring & evaluation staff, program staff)  and local and international organizations working in Economic Recovery and Development, Social cohesion/Peace building in the North and Bekaa.

Target Groups: Status: Lebanese Host Community, Syrian Refugees | Age Groups: Women, Men, Boys and Girls

Governorates:

North, Akkar, and Bekaa

Ethics/protection:

The consultant is requested to include a section on research ethical considerations in the inception report which elaborates on protection issues and other ethical concerns.

The consultant(s) should take all reasonable steps to ensure that the analysis is designed and conducted to respect and protect the rights and welfare of people participating in this assessment, and to ensure that the analysis is technically accurate, reliable, and legitimate, conducted in a transparent and impartial manner, and contributes to organizational learning and accountability.

The Consultant should also adhere to the IRC safeguarding policy to ensure the do no harm to the community and the people who are part of the exercise.

Treatment of information:

All data and information received for the purpose of this assignment are to be treated confidentially and are only to be used in connection with the execution of these terms of reference. All intellectual property rights arising from the execution of these terms of reference are assigned to the IRC and CARE. The contents of written material obtained and used in this assignment may not be disclosed to any third parties. No data should stay with the consultant following the approved end of the assignment.

Deliverables:

• Inception report which will outline the key scope of the work and intended work plan of the analysis, and detailed analysis questions. The inception report should detail the consultant’s understanding of the resilience as well as the peace and conflict drivers and connectors in Lebanon through a thorough Desk review; the inception report will include a detailed methodology; Proposed sources of data; and Data collection tools and procedures. It should also include a thorough gaps analysis in addition to a provisional timeline of the deliverables. The inception report will be shared after 7 days of the consultancy start date and discussed and agreed upon with IRC and CARE.
• Validation Workshop with the key staff of the project including senior management following the preliminary analysis of the data being collected.
• A Draft Final Report in English which will be shared with the assessment management, who will be providing their comments in 3 days.
• A Final analysis Report in English within 10 days from receiving the comments on the draft report which should not exceed 40 pages including:
  • Title page and Cover photo.
  • Table of contents.
  • Acknowledgement Statement (optional)
  • Executive summary
  • List of acronyms and abbreviations
  • Background of the project
  • Description of the analysis methodology
  • Main findings showing (in two separate sections and integrated) both resilience, and peace and conflict analysis supported with quotes charts and numbers. This will include in-depth look at main questions integrated with different influential dynamics in the country, emphasizing the impact of various socio-political and economic challenges on different groups.
  • Conclusion.
  • Recommendations where the consultant will propose evidence-based strategic opportunities for enhancing crisis management and prevention strategies and actionable recommendations for IRC's and CARE’s programming.
• Power point presentation in English to key IRC and CARE stakeholders, including methodology, main findings, recommended strategy.

Payment Rate and Schedule:

One final payment based on the number of days worked, which will be preceded by submission of the final report to IRC and CARE AND acceptance of IRC and CARE to it.

Logistics Support

The consultancy will be responsible for its own transportation and accommodation in Lebanon. IRC and CARE can support the consultancy in Data collectors if needed.

Requirements:

• Relevant degree and minimum 5 years of experience in areas such as political economy, disaster preparedness, resilience, governance, or system strengthening.
• Experience working in Lebanon or similar contexts, with a good understanding of local dynamics.
• Proficiency in conducting context analyses and PCAs, with excellent communication skills in English and Arabic.
• Ability to produce high-quality analytical documents.

How to apply:

• Applicants should submit a Technical Proposal including a preliminary methodology and a provisional timeframe, Financial proposal/s (with USD daily rate), Curriculum Vitae, Cover letter expressing their interest in the assignment, Sample of related assessments reports (or links) done by them and that are publicly shared. During submittal applicants should indicate “IRC and CARE Lebanon Conflict and Resilience Analysis” in the subject.
• Closing Date: Feb 16, 2024
• The applications will be scored by a joint committee from  IRC and CARE from different perspectives and only shortlisted candidates will be contacted for an interview.

The IRC and IRC workers must adhere to the values and principles outlined in IRC Way - Standards for Professional Conduct. These are Integrity, Service, Accountability and Equality. In accordance with these values, the IRC operates and enforces policies on Beneficiary Protection from Exploitation and Abuse, Child Safeguarding, Anti Workplace Harassment, Fiscal Integrity, and Anti-Retaliation.