Request for proposals - Mapping and analysis of data on stocks and flows of African migrant workers in the GCC, Lebanon and Jordan

Background

According to ILO global estimates on international migrant workers, the number of migrant workers in 12 Arab States amounted to 24.1 million persons in 2019, representing 14 per cent of all migrant workers worldwide. Importantly, the region has the highest global share of migrant workers as a proportion of the total workforce, reaching 41.4 per cent in 2019 compared to the global average of just 5 per cent. This means that nearly half of all workers are migrant workers due to a number of factors, including the very high labour force participation rates of migrants compared to nationals, especially women.

Although the majority of migrant workers in the Gulf Council Cooperation (GCC) countries, Lebanon and Jordan (hereafter ‘Arab States’), particularly male migrant workers, are from Asia, there is anecdotal evidence of rising numbers of sub-Saharan African workers. However, there are few (if any) statistical reports that have been produced to date to confirm this trend.

From a data collection perspective, the governance of migration in these Arab States is “multi-centric”. Data producers may be administrative bodies such as ministries and ministries’ departments, or international bodies targeting specific populations, which produce administrative raw data (records of entries and exits; of employment; of refugees and asylum-seekers’ registration, for instance). Data-producers can also be legal bodies, producers of statistical information (statistics departments), or academics conducting field interviews, for instance. The diversity of actors adds to the diversity of data produced in the region and because of a lack of harmonized definitions between governmental entities, not all administrative data are statistically usable. Beyond lack of harmonization, administrative systems may not be designed for statistical production purposes and thus the information they produce is challenging to interpret and use.

In 2021, the ILO commissioned an analysis of labour migration statistics:

1. To create and inventory/mapping of existing migration data sources and statistics in each of the six GCC countries and Jordan, as well as Ethiopia and Kenya as two key countries of origin, analyzing data sets’ definitions, features, and limitations, including in the context of consistency with ILO’s definitions (the ICLS Guidelines Concerning Statistics of International Labour Migration);
2. Based on the mapping referenced above, to identify those sources which could provide information on the COVID-19 impact (migrants’ stocks, flows and socio-demographic
information including on employment) and, through microdata analysis and/or analysis of published tables, produce a coherent summary of data from these aiming to reconcile trends based on the different sources; and
3. To provide a qualitative analysis of the main outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic downturn on migration stocks, flows, and sociodemographic structure.
The research was published as a Thematic Brief as part of the ILO-African Union Commission (AUC) Africa – Arab States Interregional Tripartite Meeting on Labour Migration (ILO, AUC. 2021. Evolving labour migration trends between Africa and the Arab States.)
In order to capture data from new data sources disseminated since the above-mentioned analysis, and expand the analysis to include information from additional countries of origin, the ILO is commissioning a new analysis of stocks and flows of African migrant workers in the Arab States.

The research will be undertaken under the FAIRWAY Programme, funded by the Swiss Development Cooperation, which is a four-year inter-regional development cooperation initiative that aims to improve conditions of labour migration across migration pathways from Africa to Arab States and better protect all migrant workers in vulnerable situations within the Arab states region, thereby enabling migrant workers to contribute more fully to sustainable development in both countries of origin and destination.

Proposed methodology

The research will follow the below outline/methodology:
Inventory/mapping of existing migration data sources and statistics in each of the six GCC countries, Lebanon and Jordan relating to migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, Egypt and Tunisia:
The consultant will be responsible for identifying, gaining access to, and analyzing all relevant sources including:
➢ Statistical data and administrative data including labour force surveys, censuses
➢ Periodic ‘migration statistics’ reports (such as Kuwait’s Migration Statistics Bulletin 2022, published in March 2023)
➢ Statistical yearbooks (which may publish data on deportations of workers – with a specific focus on workers who ‘absconded’)1.

Data collection and analysis should consider data disaggregated by geographic region (eg. ‘African workers’) and by country of nationality (outlining data for all listed African countries).
The report should also produce an updated total of stocks or flows of African workers in each Arab State country of destination as a total and a percentage, compared to workers from Asia and Arab States respectively (for an example, see Table 1 in ILO, AUC. 2021. Evolving labour migration trends between Africa and the Arab States.)

The analysis should offer a critical review of the types of data produced by each source, to help the reader understand the scope, significance and possible limitations of that source. Where possible, the report should include a sectoral analysis of key sectors, including domestic work.

Inventory/mapping and analysis of existing migration data sources and statistics in selected countries of origin with respect to information on outmigration to the Arab States

The consultant will liaise with relevant ILO focal points to identify key sources of data on outmigration to the Arab States from the following countries of origin: Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Tanzania, Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco and Ethiopia.

The consultant will not be responsible to conduct an exhaustive search of microdata, but is expected to do a broad mapping of possible data sources available, and analysis, including: Labour Force Surveys which include questions on household members abroad, Migrant Data Management Systems (eg. Ethiopia) and other sources identified by ILO colleagues. The consultant will also review migration flows based on international databases and in particular UN DESA for the countries of origin and destination concerned.

Again, the mapping and analysis should also include instructions on appropriate use/interpretation (eg. definitions), and provide a basic, qualitative assessment of the sources and their limitations.

Using these sources, the report will:

➢ Describe general migration patterns to and from the Arab states region with respect to African workers (as well as from Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) taking into consideration data on the structure of the employed population by sector, profession, occupation, etc (including domestic work).
➢ Compare migration dynamics by groups of countries of origin, in the last several years, to the extent possible.

Deliverables

The consultant will be required to produce report of approximately 20-25 pages, excluding annexes which will include a list of resources, mapping of metadata and necessary definitions.

Contract length and payment

The consultant will be contracted on an external collaborator agreement for approximately 20 non-consecutive days between 25 August – 3 November 2023.

The consultant will be paid in two instalments:
• 60% on submission of a first draft by 10 October 2023; and
• 40% on submission of a final draft by 3 November 2023.

Required qualifications and experience

• Advanced university degree in statistics, demography, migration or similar discipline.
• Proven (7 years minimum) experience in analysis of migration or labour statistics.
• Outstanding knowledge of (labour) migration statistics in the GCC, Lebanon and/or Jordan.
• Sound understanding of ILO Guidelines concerning Statistics on International Labour Migration Adopted by the 20th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS) as a reference framework for understanding/interpreting definitions used in the identified sources.
• Proven ability to write concise, informative, and accurate reports in understandable terms.
• Ability to work under time-pressure and deliver work of outstanding quality.

Proposals

Interested applicants for the consultancy should submit:
1. A technical proposal: The proposal shall include a detailed narrative on how the applicant plans to undertake the consultancy, together with:
• CV
• References/links to one or two recent similar projects
2. Financial proposal with a breakdown of costs based on daily rate (preferably in the currency of the consultant’s bank account)