Consultancy - PROMOTING A GREEN AND JUST TRANSITION FOR MORE AND BETTER JOBS IN THE ARAB STATES REGION

Background and Justification

The Arab States is a diverse and complex region, consisting of 12 countries split between GCC and non-GCC states.1 The region has been struggling with years of geopolitical unrest, protracted conflicts and financial and economic crises that have exacerbated structural socio-economic and labour market challenges, resulting in heightened levels of poverty, inequality and unemployment.
Overall, the employment and economic challenges in the Arab region are complex and interrelated, with a range of factors contributing to the poor employment outcomes. Key structural challenges include, inter alia, i) limited diversification of economies, with many countries heavily dependent on the oil and gas sector; ii) weak private sector development, with limited opportunities for decent and formal job creation outside of an “inefficient” public sector; iii) inadequate response of the education and skills development systems to the labour market needs; and iv) poor business environment and limited access of SMEs and potential entrepreneurs to finance and credit.
While efforts are underway to address these challenges, including through the development of policies and strategies to promote economic diversification, formalization, decent job creation and private sector development, the rapid changes in the world of work and the increasing environmental challenges including climate change, natural resource depletion and pollution, are delaying progress and hindering sustainable growth and development.
As attention to the global climate emergency grows, countries around the world are putting greater emphasis on clean energy and green economies. Referred to as “green transition”, policy measures that shift the business-as-usual economic models towards low-carbon trajectories are of utmost importance in the Arab States region where some countries are key contributors to climate change and to the depletion of resources, while other less resource-endowed countries are among the most impacted by the changing climate.

Greening economic, employment and labour market-related policies and practices is critical for harnessing the potential of green growth and employment in the region. Green jobs can provide immense opportunities to tackle the issue of deficiency in the number and quality of jobs available, promote sustainable development and contribute to the transition to a low-carbon economy. Achieving this, however, requires a just transition framework that can help building forward better, ensuring that employment gains are equally shared and that no one is left behind. The region’s abundant renewable energy resources, its vast agricultural land, and its potential for sustainable tourism are key enablers for such a transition.

In recent years, environmental awareness has notably risen in the Arab States with green jobs and just transition featuring as a key priority in various public documents and debates. Various countries have also developed specific policies and/or action plans to promote green growth in certain sectors and numerous efforts are underway to support this shift from brown to clean and green energy sources. However, the impact of these policies and their degree of success is not necessarily clear; there is also not enough research looking into what the different countries have been or have not been doing in this area and where the real gaps, opportunities and needs are.

In this context, the Regional Economic and Social Analysis Unit (RESA) at the ILO Regional Office for Arab States is commissioning a study to shed light on the role, importance and opportunities provided by the green and digital economies to address job creation deficiencies in the Arab States. Regional and national just transition efforts will be reviewed with the aim of identifying good practices, opportunities and gaps. The report will conclude with a set of policy recommendations aimed at supporting the reorientation and acceleration of processes of change in a just and sustainable manner.

Objectives

The objective of this consultancy is to undertake a desk research on the current status of Just transitions in the Arab States region, including main challenges, gaps and opportunities. Presenting quantitative and qualitative information will be crucial to fill in existing gaps and ultimately inform evidence-based policy development.

The study will explore the potential for job creation in a number of promising green and digital sectors and fields and the role that both GCC and non-GCC countries can play in ensuring a just transition for all. Existing policies and processes that can help support green job creation should also be analyzed and a set of recommendations presented to help ensure a successful transition.

The study will be used by the ILO to feed into a regional report that aims at providing an overview of the economic, employment and labour market situation in the region while also shedding light on the issue of just transition.

Description and methodology

The proposed study will be based on a secondary desk research and a review of existing policies and practices that support or hinder transition to a green and sustainable growth model.

The report will examine green jobs initiatives in the region, good practices and lessons learnt, as well as opportunities and challenges. A number of case studies from specific countries shall be examined and a brief on major trends and/or anomalies identified across high green potential sectors/industries developed. Using quantitative information on job creation and job destruction as a result of the green transition, which will be generated under a separate agreement between the ILO and the Cambridge Econometrics Institute, this study should also aim, to the extent possible, to fill in the data gap in this area.

Based on the above, and in line with the ILO’s “Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all”, the report should provide policy recommendations that focus simultaneously on the supply and demand sides of the labour market, taking into account the region’s specificities and current geopolitical circumstances while also focusing on the specific opportunities brought by just transition and the policies needed to facilitate such a transition.

The production of this report will require in-depth secondary research review, drawing on accredited national and international sources, including ILO reports. Econometric analysis will be conducted by the Cambridge Econometrics Institute and results will be shared with the consultant to feed into the report.

The study should cover the following main sections, among others:
- Introduction
- Rationale for just transition in the GCC and non-GCC States
- An assessment of current policies and programmes and identification of good practices
- Promising sectors for just transition and green job creation
- Jobs to be created and skills needed
- Vulnerable groups (including workers in energy-reliant sectors) and the risk of leaving people behind
- Recommendations for a successful just transition

Internal Arrangements and Timeline

The external collaborator will work under the direct supervision of the Senior Employment Policy Specialist & Head of the Regional Economic and Social Analysis (RESA) Unit at the ILO Regional Office for Arab States and with the technical guidance and support of the Labour Economist and Labour Statistician in the RESA Unit.

The duration needed to complete this study will be 4 months, starting in July 2023.

Deliverables, timeline and payment

This consultancy should be performed in 35 working days by the selected consultant, with the following deadlines:
1. Report outline: 10 July 2023
2. Preliminary draft report, excluding Cambridge Econometrics Institute estimates: 11 September 2023
3. Final report, incorporating quantitative estimates received from the Cambridge Econometrics Institute, in addition to feedback received on the preliminary draft: 31 October 2023

A first payment of 60% of the contract value will be made upon submission of the outline and draft report (deliverables 1 and 2), with the remaining 40% being paid upon submission of the final report, all to the satisfaction of the ILO.
Requirements / qualifications
- A minimum of 5 years of relevant professional experience in economic and econometric research and analysis.
- Solid knowledge of the employment and labour market situation in the Arab region, including in relation to matters of sustainability, i.e. green jobs and just transition.
- Experience working on analyzing sectors and regions affected by climate change and energy transition
- Excellent research, analytical and writing skills, dealing with complex concepts in a clear and concise manner
- Fluency in English