Lebanon: Flash Update #53 - Escalation of hostilities in Lebanon, as of 02 January 2025
HIGHLIGHTS
- 860,740 people displaced within Lebanon reported back in their cadasters of origin as of 31 December (IOM).
- 123,774 people remain displaced outside their cadasters of origin, a 25 per cent decrease since 25 December (IOM).
- National and local authorities estimate some 90,000 people arrived from Syria, both Lebanese and Syrian, since 8 December (UNHCR).
SITUATION OVERVIEW
As the 60-day cessation of hostilities entered its second month, complex humanitarian needs persist in Lebanon. People returning to their cadasters of origin, those unable to return, and other communities affected by the hostilities are confronted with multiple challenges – facing widespread destruction of homes and critical infrastructure, disruption in essential services, explosive ordnance risks, limited livelihoods and depleted coping mechanisms. In particular, people who remained in conflict affected areas throughout the escalation of hostilities and those residing in hard-to-reach areas face dire conditions as essential services have been severely limited for a prolonged period. The ongoing challenges continue to demand both immediate humanitarian relief and long-term recovery support, and a permanent end to hostilities.
Violations of the cessation of hostilities continued to be reported during the reporting period, primarily in Nabatieh and South governorates but also in areas north of the Litani river, with airstrikes recorded in Nabatieh and Bekka governorates, in addition to continued access restrictions imposed by the Israeli army to more than 60 villages and towns in southern Lebanon. At least 27 civilians have reportedly been killed since 27 November 2024 by Israeli attacks, according to the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).
Assessments by Lebanon’s National Council for Scientific Research illustrate the difficult realities in areas of return and those that remain hard to reach. According to monitoring by its National Center for Natural Hazards and Early Warning, 14,775 attacks were documented, more than half of which occurred between 23 Sept and 27 November (7,753 attacks), causing widespread destruction of education, health, water and other essential facilities. Nabatieh and South governorates bore the brunt of the violence, while Baalbek-Hermel, Bekka and Mount Lebanon faced substantial destruction, and North Lebanon, Beirut and Akkar also sustained widespread attacks. In the southern suburbs of Beirut, 353 buildings were completely destroyed and 593 were severely damaged, while 1,972 buildings and 2,066 buildings sustained extensive and moderate damage, respectively. The total volume of rubble from completely destroyed buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs is between 1.2-1.7 million m³. Across the country, more than 30 water facilities were damaged, and the main canal of the Litani River, an essential part of the Qasimiya irrigation project serving 6,000 hectares of farmland, was impacted. Hostilities also directly targeted five schools, five municipal centers and 94 primary health care centers and dispensaries, as well as 47 hospitals, according to the report.
The hostilities severely impacted agricultural production and, critically, people’s safe access to their agricultural land. Despite the cessation of hostilities agreement in effect, access to agricultural areas remains restricted in southern border regions, and recovery will require sustained support and access. A rapid needs assessment conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), in partnership with the Lebanese Ministry of Agriculture, found that the impact is most acute in the southern districts of Bent Jbeil, Nabatieh, Marjaayoun and Tyre. In those areas, approximately 95 per cent of agricultural households have been displaced – nearly all the crop producers, and some 90 per cent of livestock farmers have not been able to access their land and farms. In areas like Baalbek and Bekaa, where land is relatively more accessible and agricultural activities continue, farmers struggle with the impacts of hostilities beyond damaged land, such as lack of inputs, scarcity of labour and absence of markets.
Concerningly, around 90 per cent of agricultural households in affected areas anticipate losses to their total production due to the conflict, with 39 per cent of crop farmers and 27 per cent of livestock farmers expecting significant losses.
Displacement data, captured through IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix, offer insights into movement patterns during this period of relative calm in several areas. Some 123,774 people have been identified as remaining internally displaced primarily in Saida, Nabatieh, Beirut, Tyre and Aley districts. This represents a 25 per cent drop since 25 December, as a total of 860,740 internally displaced people (IDPs) are estimated to be back in the cadasters from which they were initially displaced. Several collective shelters are being decommissioned due to the mass return movements. Currently 4,370 IDPs remain in 42 collective sites.
Cross-border movements also continue to be reported through official and unofficial border crossings between Syria and Lebanon. According to UNHCR, departure traffic through official border crossings remains low but steady, predominantly through Masnaa crossing, including those who may be crossing for short periods to assess the situation in Syria. In the reporting period, between 100 to 200 people have been in the ‘no-man's land’ area at any one time, either being processed to enter Lebanon or going into Syria. National authorities in Lebanon report approximately 90,000 new arrivals since 8 December from Syria (both Lebanese and Syrian) in the Hermel area of Baalbek Governorate. The number of people living in collective sites has fluctuated due to the fluid situation, currently estimated at 36,000 people (mostly Syrians), with the remainder of recent arrivals living in communities. Women and children, often the most vulnerable groups, are disproportionately represented among the new arrivals, highlighting the heightened risks and limited resources they face.
