WORSENING INEQUALITY IN THE MENA REGION IN THE TIMES OF AUSTERITY AND CRISIS

Terms of reference for external consultancy

Paper:

Title: Worsening Inequality in the MENA Region in the times of austerity and crisis

Justification

The briefing paper is part of Oxfam in MENA’s advocacy and influencing to fight inequality and austerity in the region. It is an essential part of the region’s efforts and planning around the IMF/WB annual meetings in Marrakesh expected to take place between October 09 – 15 2023. It aims to influence the debate in the annual meetings where the MENA region will receive a special attention in this years’ annual. The paper will bolster Oxfam’s influencing around that moment where we will rally allies around the inequality crisis in the region and push for fairer tax systems with emphasis on wealth taxation. The briefing paper will look at worsening inequality in the MENA Region (with a focus on specific countries) particularly after the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine. It will examine the lack of adequate and just taxation systems in the region, particularly wealth taxes, which is limiting the governments’ fiscal space and their spending on public services and resulting in additional inequalities and gender discrimination. The briefing paper/report will include policy recommendations formulated around the importance of taxing the rich to expand government resources and revenues, increase spending on universal social protection and public services and reduce all types of inequalities.   

Objectives

-- Highlight worsening inequalities in the MENA Region, particularly after the pandemic and the cost-of living-crisis and examine the lack of just taxation systems that are limiting the governments’ fiscal space and their spending on public services and resulting in additional inequalities and gender discrimination

-- Generate killer-facts and statistics on inequalities, fiscal resources, and public expenditure to showcase the losses resulting from the lack of adequate taxation systems and its impact on limiting fiscal space in the MENA Region

-- Formulate policy recommendations around the importance of taxing the rich, increasing public spending and universal social protection and reducing all types of inequalities

Contextual background and draft content

The briefing paper will highlight the severity of the inequality crisis in the MENA region heading to the Marrakesh annual meetings. It exposes the massive gains of the wealthy in the region since the pandemic and throughout the historic cost of living crisis. The report will also show that austerity in the region is not inevitable through exposing the inadequate tax systems, especially the lack of different forms of wealth taxation. It recommends wealth tax reforms and the revenues that governments in the region are foregoing by not taxing the rich which could be invested in building up social protections systems and quality public services.

Suggested content (based on the signed off TORs for this research)

• Executive Summary  
• Introduction: Brief overview of the inequality crisis in the MENA region and setting the tone for the whole paper. This includes the role of austerity policies in reaching the current abysmal situation in terms of inequality and poverty in the region, while highlighting the intersectional impact of inequality, particularly on women and girls. 

1. Chapter 1: Profiteering from crisis: the explosion of the inequality crisis in MENA  

• The most recent cost of living crisis (following Covid pandemic and war on Ukraine) hit a region already facing macroeconomic challenges, suffering from unsustainable debt and rising deficits in the balance of payment, and relying on food and energy subsidies to ensure access to basic goods for the population. This chapter highlights the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on inequality in MENA (through short country case studies, depending on availability of data) 

1. Cost of living, subsidized goods, access to basic goods  

1. Data on household expenditure: percentage of spending on health, education, and basic goods by income brackets – and the gendered impact of this: unpaid and underpaid care work, lost economic opportunities, education for girls..., SRHR 

1. Lack of social protection and public services to protect the most vulnerable in times of global shocks: data on access to social protection, education healthcare, and out of pocket health expenditure 

1. Chapter Two: How Taxing the Rich Can Reduce Inequality in MENA:  

• The chapter will look at the prevailing tax systems in select countries in the region, exposing the lack and adequacy of different forms of wealth taxation. 
• It will highlight the unfair tax burden on the shoulders of the middle- and low-income categories. 
• Exposing IMF’s regressive tax policy recommendations for countries in the region 
• Providing killer stats on the potential revenues from different forms of wealth taxation and how countries can use these revenues to fight inequality 
• Highlight how tax justice is a main pillar towards gender justice. Plenty of resources from action aid and other organizations – including feminist economic alternatives. 
• Suggested focus on the following countries: Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt 

* List of countries will be reviewed with the external consultant and will most probably be cut down. 

1. Chapter Three: Policy Recommendations: (based on the findings of the two chapters, including from the feminist economists’ lens) 
2. Recommendations & Conclusion  

Deliverables

Core full document including:

• Executive summary
• Briefing Paper (Word count: around 8,000 words in total)
• Data set on which the report is written
• Annexes, supporting documents and data collection tools

Time Frame

This consultancy commencement and end dates are:

21^th of May – 15^th of August 2023

Suggested methodology

Methodology could include:

1. Comprehensive desk review of existing literature around inequalities, inadequate taxation systems, lack of fiscal resources and spending on public goods and social protections in the MENA Region (and in the countries that we agree to focus on with the consultant) – using Local / National context research and experts as much as possible.
2. Analysis of available fiscal, economic and social indicators for the countries that we are covering

The consultant (s) should propose a more detailed methodology.

Suggested countries

The briefing paper will cover the MENA region and will focus on specific countries that were already facing economic and financial crises and were particularly hit by the cost-of-living crisis given their dependency on the import of commodities.

These countries may include Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq but the briefing paper could be narrowed to focus on less countries depending on the availability of data, indicators and analysis.

Support

The consultant(s) will work in close coordination with Oxfam in MENA team and a steering committee of Oxfam experts (working on inequality and taxation) who will review and comment on the different outputs and their drafts throughout the process.

Audience

Primary audience: Media, policymakers at national and regional level, the IMF and the World Bank.

Secondary audience: civil society organisations 

Translation

The document will be developed in English, and possibly translated into Arabic

Required profile

• Demonstrated experience (education and/or professional) in issues related to development, economics, or another related field.
• Expertise and understanding of taxation and fiscal justice issues in the MENA Region
• Knowledge of IMF programs, interventions, and on-going discussions in the MENA region, in addition to familiarity with IFIs (International Financial Institutions)
• Strong understanding of social spending, social protection, public services, and their relationship to poverty and inequality in the MENA Region
• Experience with datasets and budgets
• Strong experience working or conducting research in the MENA Region

Call for proposals

Interested candidates / organizations should submit:

• Technical proposal that includes, background, focus of countries to be targeted, proposed methodology and time frame for submission.
• ONE written Sample of previous published work targeting international financial institutions.
• Proposed budget (broken down by days)
• CV and Cover letter summary of relevant previous experience and why you would be granted this consultancy.  

We request that this information be submitted via one single email to:

[email protected]

no later than the 18th of May 2023

Selection criteria

Technical Scoring : 60%

-At least 8+ years Number Professional experience in Economic Justice, or Inequality in MENA – Ranking: 10%

-Demonstration of strong experience working or conducting research in the MENA Region, by submitting one previous written sample- Ranking: 25%

-At least 8+ years’ experience of working on and with IFI (international Financial Institutions) – Ranking: 20%

-Bi-lingual Arabic & English- Ranking: 5%

Financial Scoring :  40%

Indicative calendar

• First Draft Submission: 20^th of June 2023
• Second Draft Submission: 17^th July (After an internal consultation with Oxfam team)
• Final Draft Submission: 15^th of August 2023