TERMS OF REFERENCE “REFRESH OF LEBANON’S LABOUR EMPLOYMENT DIAGNOSTIC”

Background and Introduction

Lebanon’s labour market remains under exceptional pressure as the country grapples with a prolonged and complex crisis. Since 2019, the country has undergone one of the most severe economic collapses in recent history, characterized by the near-total failure of the banking sector, a sharp depreciation of the national currency, soaring inflation, widespread business closures and a dramatic decline in household incomes. These developments have severely undermined the labour market’s capacity to generate decent and sustainable employment. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Beirut Port explosion in 2020 further exacerbated the situation, disrupting economic activity and deepening labour market vulnerabilities.

In 2024, the outbreak of a full-scale war with Israel dealt an additional blow to the economy, further affecting jobs and livelihoods, exacerbating unemployment and labour underutilization, and increasing the risk of informality, poverty and vulnerability. Meanwhile, recent developments in Syria are also likely to impact Lebanon’s labour market- presenting both challenges and opportunities - and reinforcing the need for evidence-based reforms to foster a more inclusive and resilient labour market underpinned by productivity and decent work.

In response to earlier phases of the crisis, the International Labour Organization (ILO) – Regional Office for Arab States, completed a comprehensive Employment Diagnostic for Lebanon in 2022. Drawing on national datasets, international sources and a wide range of reports, the diagnostic provided a detailed analysis of employment trends, labour market structures, and underlying economic and structural challenges. It also presented a set of evidence-based policy recommendations to guide national employment strategies and inform targeted interventions.

However, in light of the significant political, economic, and social developments that have occurred globally, regionally, and nationally since 2022 and with appointment of the new government in Lebanon in January 2025, there is a clear and urgent need to refresh and update the diagnostic. The update will incorporate the latest data and policy shifts through secondary desk research to ensure the diagnostic reflects current realities.

Once finalized - in close coordination and co-creation with the Ministry of Labour and other relevant tripartite stakeholders- the updated diagnostic will serve as a key reference for evidence-based policy formulation and programmatic planning, helping to shape a more inclusive, equitable and future-ready labour market in Lebanon.

Objectives and scope of consultancy

Objectives

The primary objective of this assignment is to update Lebanon’s existing Employment Diagnostic to ensure its continued relevance and responsiveness to the country’s evolving labour market context. The updated diagnostic will serve as a robust evidence base to inform policy decisions and guide national employment planning and interventions.

More specifically, the consultancy aims to:

• Update the existing employment diagnostic with the latest data and policy developments, where they exist.
• Engage the Ministry of Labour (MoL) throughout the process to ensure ownership and alignment with national priorities.
• Facilitate a tripartite validation workshop to finalize and endorse the diagnostic.

Scope of Work

The consultant will undertake the following tasks, under the direct supervision of the ILO’s Senior Employment Policy specialist and the Labour Economist at the Regional Office for Arab States:

a. Desk research

• Review and update the existing diagnostic report using the latest available data and relevant assessments conducted to date.
• Reflect any relevant policy, institutional or regulatory changes since the diagnostic of 2022.
• Reflect on the impact of the latest global, regional and national developments that have impacted the employment and labour market landscape in Lebanon.

c. Close Engagement with the Ministry of Labour

• Coordinate closely with the Ministry of Labour throughout the process to ensure inputs, alignment and ownership.

d. Presentation and validation of diagnostic

• Participate in the ILO’s tripartite validation workshop involving the Ministry of Labour, relevant line ministries with an impact on employment and labour market policies (e.g., Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Economy and Trade, Ministry of Social Affairs, etc…), as well as representatives of employers and workers, to present and validate diagnostic, gather feedback, and revise the diagnostic accordingly.

Deliverables and timeline

The assignment is expected to be completed over a period of 6 weeks, starting on 10 April 2025 and ending on 20 May 2025, with the following tentative timelines:

1. Updated Employment Diagnostic Report (Draft) – incorporating both quantitative and qualitative updates. This should also be done with the close involvement of the MOL; and submitted to the ILO for review and feedback by 26^th of April 2025;
2. Revised draft of Employment diagnostic report – incorporating ILO feedback and comments, submitted to ILO’s satisfaction by 9^th of May 2025;
3. PowerPoint presentation of the diagnostic findings and recommendations – presented to tripartite stakeholders during the validation workshop; delivered during the week of the 12^th of May 2025;
4. Validated Final Diagnostic Report – incorporating feedback from the tripartite validation workshop; submitted to ILO’s satisfaction by the 20^th of May 2025.

Budget and payment schedule

This assignment will require a total of 18 working days during the 6-week period. Total amount will be paid according to the following schedule:

1. 50% to be paid upon submission of deliverables 1 and 2, on 9 May 2025;
2. 50% to be paid upon presenting the report and submission of final validated draft (deliverables 3 and 4), on 20 May 2025.

Qualifications

• Education: Advanced University degree in Economics (preferably labour or development economics), development studies, social sciences or a related discipline.
• At least 8 years of relevant professional experience.
• Strong expertise in labour market analysis and employment policy.
• Experience conducting focus groups and stakeholder consultations.
• Familiarity with national labour market institutions and dynamics.
• Familiarity with the ILO mandate.
• Excellent command of spoken and written English and Arabic.
• Excellent analytical, drafting and organizational skills.