The impact of the ongoing conflict in Lebanon: Impact assessment on agriculture and livelihoods

In this rapid geospatial analysis, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) utilized satellite imagery to assess the potential impact of the escalation of conflict in Lebanon on agricultural land and livelihoods, and to identify the areas most affected. As the conflict has disrupted agricultural production, understanding these possible impacts is crucial to identify the anticipated consequences to the sector and those that rely on it. This Data in Emergencies Impact (DIEM-Impact) StoryMap produced with the FAO Representation in Lebanon, provides a broad overview of the initial picture of the possible impact of the conflict on agriculture and implications for food security. The objective of this preliminary assessment is to help focus immediate response efforts and subsequent geospatial and field assessment work in Lebanon.

Limitations

This assessment was developed using available datasets at the time of publication. It is not intended to be a comprehensive inventory of all affected locations, crop types or population groups, nor does it capture all aspects of the seasonality of agriculture in Lebanon. Rather it is intended to provide an initial overview to be further complemented, updated and strengthened with additional in-depth investigation.

Conflict events were sourced from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data ( ACLED ) which are compiled and verified by multiple sources. Peaceful protest events were excluded from this analysis. Data was accessed as at 1 November 2024. Approximately 96 percent of conflict events were related to aerial strikes, shelling or other bombardment.

Key highlights

• Since 23 September 2024, the conflict has escalated significantly. Conflict events such as aerial strikes, shelling and missile attacks have become more frequent, intense and across a wider geographic area. Attacks, initially limited to southern Lebanon, have spread further north and east, increasing to 4 166 bombings and 2 115 fatalities in the five weeks between 23 September and 1 November 2024, compared to 8 605 bombings and 837 fatalities in the 12 months preceding 23 September.
• The conflict has placed at least 130 municipalities, including those in Baalbek, El-Hermel, El Nabatieh and Marjaayoun, at potentially high risk of damage to agricultural land and assets.
• Between 23 September and 1 November, 336 instances of aerial strikes or shelling are estimated to have struck cropland, of which 74 affected irrigated areas. Based on these strikes, agricultural activities at high risk include:
• Harvesting of olives, grapes, potatoes, citrus, bananas and avocados; and
• Sowing of late summer vegetables and cereal crops.
• In addition to cropland, 173 strikes hit forested land and 221 hit grassland. Grasslands in Baalbek and Bekaa are used for livestock grazing.
• The conflict has caused massive population displacement, disrupting agriculture in locations in the south and Baalbek-El Hermel where access to land and/or labour is at heightened risk, leading to unharvested and abandoned croplands.
• The pattern of conflict events has been largely aligned with both the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 3+ populations and locations of origin for most internally displaced persons (IDP), raising concerns about household resilience to multiple shocks, especially in Bent Jbeil, Sour, Marjaayoun and Baalbek.

Read the full assessment here