ToR - CONSULTANCY - Rapid Situational Analysis on Just Transition for Nationally Determined Contributions

Individual contractors only. 

The ILO is inviting qualified and experienced policy experts or researchers familiar with just transition/green jobs/green economy issues to submit proposals to undertake an analysis of opportunities for integrating just transition in the current round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in Iraq.  

Background 

The next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0) due for submission in 2025 provides a pivotal opportunity to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Delivering a just transition and thus addressing the employment and social dimensions of climate action is a key enabler of climate ambition and a vehicle of sustainable development. Addressing a just transition meaningfully in NDCs offers a crucial anchor to foster these goals by providing a central entry point for coherence across different policy domains; signalling a clear commitment to inclusive and fair outcomes based on social dialogue and stakeholder engagement; and supporting a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach to climate action and to sustainable development.  

A Just Transition is about shifting towards carbon neutral, sustainable and resilient economies, while maximising decent work opportunities and minimising and addressing potential negative employment and social impacts deriving from such transformation. The Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all, adopted by the ILO Governing Body in 2015, provide a framework on guiding principles and key policy areas to governments and social partners. Given that no one size fits all, it is important for each country to develop just transition priorities and instruments based on its specific context. 

The uptake of tripartite social dialogue, with active participation of workers’ and employers’ organisations in the transition, is vital for building broad-based support and ownership, as well as for identifying solutions that work for real economy actors. While there are some promising experiences, the use of social dialogue and meaningful stakeholder engagement in NDC development and implementation is uneven. The ILO and the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) have joined forces globally to enhance mechanisms for social dialogue in NDC processes and strengthen social partners’ capacity and role to meaningfully engage in the development of integrated policy proposals for a just transition. Iraq is one of the countries prioritised under this global initiative. 

To support Iraq addressing just transition in the NDC 3.0, the ILO Office seeks to hire a consultant or consulting firm to conduct a Rapid Situational Analysis on Just Transition for Nationally Determined Contributions. The analysis will provide an overview of the impacts of climate change and climate action on decent work and social equity and offer reflections on potential considerations and measures to be included in the NDC3.0 in order to advance a just transition. 

The Rapid Situational Analysis (RSA) on Just Transition for Nationally Determined Contributions is a set of tools developed by the ILO to help identify key opportunities and critical challenges for a Just Transition within a country’s specific context to inform the NDC 3.0 revision process. It provides a methodology and analytical process to map the links between the economy, decent work, and the environment at both the national and sectoral levels, identifying possible entry points for policies and interventions. The RSA for a Just Transition is a desk-based study, but it is a relatively quick yet systematic exercise, offering clear guidance for structured information gathering and analysis. The ILO developed the RSA Methodology as a tool to inform Just Transition dialogues and support Just Transition processes and actions. 

RSAs on Just Transition are often discussed in dialogues or can help inform consultations. 

Objective  

The objective of the consultancy is to conduct a rapid assessment to support Iraq address just transition in the NDC 3.0 aligned with national priorities. 

Scope 

The consultancy will produce a Rapid Situational Analysis on Just Transition for the NDC, drawing upon the ILO Just Transition Guidelines and using the methodology for the RSA on Just Transition for NDCs developed by the ILO. It will present a structured approach to addressing just transition into the NDC of Iraq, and can serve as an input for social dialogue sessions and to inform the NDC revision process in the country.

The RSA on JT for the NDCs will include:

1. General overview of the socio-economic context and decent work issues in Iraq
2. Analysis of the linkages between the economy, decent work, and climate (climate change and climate action) and identify just transition opportunities across the economy and within priority sectors for mitigation and adaptation outlined in the NDC (or anticipated to be included). This analysis will also highlight considerations to promote gender equality and enhance economic and social inclusion of vulnerable groups.
3. Analysis of the integration of just transition and other key social, employment and decent work considerations in the current NDC;
4. Analysis of main areas of the NDC where social partners might need to be consulted and where their inputs are of relevance to support the transition of workers and employers to a low carbon economy.
5. Review of key national policies that can be leveraged to promote a just transition, such as national development plans, long-term climate strategies, national adaptation plans and employment policies to identify potential anchors and gaps for just transition measures- These may include but not be limited to;
   • Iraq’s Vision 2030 and the National Employment Strategy, particularly in integrating just transition into economic and labor market planning.
   • Iraq's green growth strategy (MOP, MOENV and UNPD) 
   • Global frameworks, such as the UNFCCC Just Transition Work Programme and lessons learned from similar RSAs in other countries.
   • Coordination with existing national climate governance structures, ensuring that the RSA contributes to ongoing social dialogue and intergovernmental collaboration.
6. In-depth sectoral analysis within priority sectors for mitigation and adaptation outlined in the NDC.
7. Based on the analysis conducted, identify recommendations of potential considerations and measures to advance just transition in the NDC3.0 aligned with national priorities.

Depending on the country approach to the NDC revision, the consultancy may present the RSA with line ministries, social partners and other relevant stakeholders as requested by the ILO to gather feedback and revise the RSA report as necessary.

Methodology 

The RSA for just transition in NDCs will use the ILO methodology for that end, which involves data analysis of economic, employment, social and environmental indicators, a policy review and interviews with key stakeholders (around 5 interviews).  

Outputs  

The consultancy will deliver the following products: 

• Product 1: Annotated outline and schedule of activities.  (English) 
• Product 2: Draft of the RSA report for comments from the ILO team. (English) 
• Product 3: PowerPoint presentation of the report. (English and Arabic) 
• Product 4: Final RSA report incorporating feedback  from stakeholders.  (English and Arabic) 

Qualifications required  

• Advanced University Degree in social or environmental sciences, economics or another relevant field. 
• Demonstrated experience in producing high quality research  
• Excellent analysis and report writing skills, including ability to elaborate high quality documents in English. Proficiency in Arabic is necessary. 
• Expertise on just transition and the linkages between the environmental and social dimension of sustainable development at national and/or international level, with experience in policy review and analysis. 
• No travel to Iraq is expected nor required. 

Assignment timeframe and payment schedule  

It is estimated that the work will take approximately 23 workdays. The contract will start on upon signature and until June 15, 2025. The deliverables are expected to be received as follows:

• Inception report including an Annotated Outline of the report and schedule of activities, based on the ILO’s RSA methodology (5 days of work)
• Draft of the RSA report for ILO comments – (13 days of work)
• Draft for presentation to constituents and PowerPoint including delivering 1-2 presentations on the assessment in Arabic (1 hour each) – (2 days of work)
• Final RSA report – (3 days of work)

In order to develop the draft RSA report, there may be undertaken an estimated 5 key informant interviews, possibly in Arabic.

Payment Schedule 

One payment upon submission of final RSA report – 100% of total amount  

Reporting and supervisory arrangements 

The consultancy will report to Mette Grangaard Lund, Regional Just Transition Specialist, ILO Regional Office Arab States. Throughout the review process, the consultant may interact with an extended ILO team of specialists, particularly when interacting with social partners.